Table 11 PBIRROL model—sub-models for future tree list prediction (recruitment, mortality and harvesting)

Recruitment

 Annual recruitment probability equation

  \( p\left( {{p_{\mathrm{I}}}=1} \right)=\frac{{{e^{{\left( {8.5856-0.6491{dg}} \right)}}}}}{{1+{e^{{\left( {8.5856-0.6491{dg}} \right)}}}}} \)

 −2LogL(likelihood) = 18.3; χ ² = 20.7; nc* = 92.6 %; cutoff > 0.053; n = 60

 Annual recruitment number of trees per hectare equation

  \( {N_{\mathrm{I}}}=885.70652-0.98457N+4.32947G+5.10969\bar{t} \)

  R ² = 0.998; \( R_{\mathrm{adj}}^2 \) = 0.994; RMS = 17.909; mean PRESS = 2.748; mean APRESS = 10.925; n = 6

Recruitment tree diameter (stochastic approach: Monte Carlo simulation)

Recruitment tree age equation

 \( {t_{\mathrm{I}}}=\frac{1}{0.0152}\ln \left[ {\frac{{\frac{{6.386\mathrm{E}14}}{{494,529+5,601.9d-2,181.5{dg}-2,932.0{h_{\mathrm{dom}}}-3,060.1\bar{t}-174,590\frac{d}{{{d_{\mathrm{dom}}}}}-30.4591N}}-1}}{{1.5767\mathrm{E}9}}} \right] \)

 R ² = 0.830; \( R_{\mathrm{adj}}^2 \) = 0.817; RMS = 7.450; mean PRESS = −0.008; mean APRESS = 2.397; n = 99

Mortality—annual tree survival probability equation

 \( p\left( {{p_{\mathrm{S}}}=1} \right)=\frac{{{e^{{\left( {4.6877+0.3033d-1.9410\bar{h}+1.1763{h_{\mathrm{dom}}}+6.4176\frac{h}{{{h_{\mathrm{dom}}}}}} \right)}}}}}{{1+{e^{{\left( {4.6877+0.3033d-1.9410\bar{h}+1.1763{h_{\mathrm{dom}}}+6.4176\frac{h}{{{h_{\mathrm{dom}}}}}} \right)}}}}} \)

 −2LogL(likelihood) = 648.2; χ ² = 73.3; nc* = 96.2 %; cutoff > 0.995; n = 2,835

Harvesting—annual tree harvesting probability equation

 \( p\left( {{p_{\mathrm{C}}}=1} \right)=\frac{{{e^{{\left( {0.8263+0.3417d-5.9013\ln (d)+0.5292Sh25-0.0713{d_{\mathrm{dom}}}} \right)}}}}}{{1+{e^{{\left( {0.8263+0.3417d-5.9013\ln (d)+0.5292Sh25-0.0713{d_{\mathrm{dom}}}} \right)}}}}} \)

 −2LogL(likelihood) = 18.3; χ ² = 20.7; nc* = 76.4 %; cutoff > 0.027; n = 2,835