Potential spread of the pine processionary moth in France: preliminary results from a simulation model and future challenges

Table 1 List of the parameters used in the model

Symbol	Description	Default values	Values tested^a	Standard deviation^b
T _c	Probabilility to survive at T _c = 0.5	3.3 °C	2.5 and 4.1 °C	0.4
s	Sensitivity parameter for survival	1	0.75 and 1.25	0.1
r	Growth rate	1	0.75 and 1.25	0.1
k	Carrying capacity	1 nest/pine	0.75, 1.25 and 20 nests / pine	0.1
D	Diffusion coefficient	2.9^c and 9.3 km²/year	2.2 and 3.6 km²/year	0.4

^aIn the sensitivity analysis, the default values ±25 % were tested; for the carrying capacity, an even higher value was also tested
^bTo assess the role of climate warming and to draw predictions for the future, the values of the parameters were chosen at random in a normal distribution centred on the default values with given standard deviation
^cTwo values of D were tested in the validation part, but only this one was kept for the other parts

ISSN: 1297-966X