Table 2 Abiotic and biotic hazards simulated in climate change (CC) risk scenario

CC only

n/a

n/a

n/a

CC + drought

Abiotic

↓ 50 % summer rainfall. There is an increased incidence of drought crack in spruce resulting in no sawlogs suitable for structural use. No effect on product quality in Scots pine.

↓ 50 % summer rainfall. No changes in management.

CC + Dothistroma

Biotic

First two thinnings are 20 % heavier than standard to reduce disease impact. Later thinnings and final volume reduced by 20 % to allow for impact of needle loss.

Severe outbreak causes widespread defoliation and reduces growth. Harvest volume reduced by 10 %. No changes in management

CC + Fusarium circinatum

Biotic

n/a

Severe outbreak causes widespread resin bleeding throughout the stem. Harvest volume not impacted. However, the highly valuable P1 timber grade cannot be recovered and all log grades are reduced by one grade. No changes in management

CC + Elatobium abietinum

Biotic

Assumed 5 % loss in increment until year 30 and 10 % thereafter (Straw et al. 2011)

n/a