Table 2 Change in mean annual temperature (T in degrees Celsius) and mean annual precipitation sum (P in percent) relative to the baseline climate of the period 1971–2000 simulated by each model per environmental zone (Metzger et al. 2005) (for abbreviations, see Table 1) and for all studied plots across Europe (‘all plots’) and each RCM/GCM combination (CCLM/ECHAM5 (CCLM), HadRM3/HadCM3 (HAD) and HIRHAM3/Arpège (HIR)), CO2 emission scenario (A1B or B1), realization (R1 or R2) and time slice (Base = 1971–2000, P1 = 2001–2030, P2 = 2031–2060, and P3 = 2061–2090) considered in this study
| Â | ALN | BOR | NEM | ATN | ALS | CON | ATC | PAN | LUS | MDM | All plots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change in T (°C) | |||||||||||
  CCLM-A1B-R1-P1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
  CCLM-A1B-R1-P2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
  CCLM-A1B-R1-P3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.9 |
  CCLM-B1-R1-P1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
  CCLM-B1-R1-P2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
  CCLM-B1-R1-P3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
  CCLM-A1B-R2-P1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
  CCLM-A1B-R2-P2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
  CCLM-A1B-R2-P3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
  CCLM-B1-R2-P1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
  CCLM-B1-R2-P2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
  CCLM-B1-R2-P3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
  HAD-A1B-R1-P1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
  HAD-A1B-R1-P2 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
  HAD-A1B-R1-P3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
  HIR-A1B-R1-P1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
  HIR-A1B-R1-P2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
  HIR-A1B-R1-P3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
Change in P (%) | |||||||||||
  CCLM-A1B-R1-P1 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 8.5 | −4.1 | −6.2 | 3.3 |
  CCLM-A1B-R1-P2 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 3.4 | −0.6 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | −8.4 | −12.8 | 3.8 |
  CCLM-A1B-R1-P3 | 16.4 | 16.3 | 15.0 | 4.1 | −0.5 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | −10.6 | −17.6 | 5.1 |
  CCLM-B1-R1-P1 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 7.9 | −0.1 | −1.2 | 4.8 |
  CCLM-B1-R1-P2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 6.7 | −1.3 | 1.2 | 5.3 |
  CCLM-B1-R1-P3 | 13.2 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 4.7 | −6.9 | −11.7 | 5.0 |
  CCLM-A1B-R2-P1 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | −0.5 | 1.5 | −2.5 | 3.9 |
  CCLM-A1B-R2-P2 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | −2.5 | −1.0 | −7.6 | 4.9 |
  CCLM-A1B-R2-P3 | 15.4 | 17.3 | 14.8 | 4.9 | −4.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | −8.6 | −8.5 | −16.9 | 4.3 |
  CCLM-B1-R2-P1 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | −3.2 | 1.1 | −2.9 | 1.9 |
  CCLM-B1-R2-P2 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 0.3 | −3.5 | −2.7 | −5.9 | 3.6 |
  CCLM-B1-R2-P3 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 7.2 | −0.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | −7.0 | −4.5 | −9.9 | 4.7 |
  HAD-A1B-R1-P1 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 1.9 | −0.7 | −0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.4 | 1.9 |
  HAD-A1B-R1-P2 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.9 | −2.2 | −5.2 | −1.6 | −6.2 | −5.9 | −15.4 | −13.0 | 0.3 |
  HAD-A1B-R1-P3 | 16.6 | 17.4 | 7.6 | −5.1 | −6.2 | −1.1 | −7.4 | −7.2 | −14.5 | −15.7 | 0.7 |
  HIR-A1B-R1-P1 | 6.6 | 5.0 | −0.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 3.3 |
  HIR-A1B-R1-P2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | −1.4 | −8.5 | −5.5 | −1.3 | −7.0 | −0.5 | −7.4 | −9.9 | −2.6 |
  HIR-A1B-R1-P3 | 11.0 | 4.2 | −9.3 | −16.3 | −13.5 | −9.6 | −15.2 | −12.5 | −15.8 | −19.5 | −8.9 |