Fig. 1

The fitted risks (the probability parameter of the binomial distribution) of pine sawfly damage (at least 33 % of pines with pine sawflies) on different forest site types A–E, predicted by the GLM (calculated for the mean likelihood [0.19] of cold (minimum temperature <−35 °C) winters), and fitted in different data sets. Site types: A–C—mineral soils: A = herb rich heat forests and more fertile types; B = mesic heath forest; C = sub-xeric heath forests and poorer types; D = spruce mires; E = pine mires. Uncertainty illustrated by the standard errors (asymmetric scale) is related to the difference between site types. Uncertainty that is common to all site types, that is, related to the intercept (=site type B) and covariate, is not shown here. In the NFI 8 and NFI 9 data, the data was insufficient to calculate the standard errors for site type A