Table 1 Limitations to species distribution models (SDMs) for predicting the impacts of climate change on forest tree species
From: Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: a review
Challenge | Examples | References |
|---|---|---|
Predicting capacity of species to move | Species have historically moved much more slowly than future climate is projected to change. Humans may have a role in shifting species distributions. Fragmentation or lack of suitable habitat can limit movement | Iverson et al. (2004), Dobrowski et al. (2013), Clark (2007), Corlett and Westcott (2013) |
Local adaptation | Many species have the capacity to adapt to changes in local conditions through refugia | Aitken et al. (2008) |
Uncertainty in predicting future climate, particularly precipitation or aridity | Water balance and aridity can be major factor in determining future tree growth | |
Predicting and incorporating effects of extreme events on tree species populations | Extreme events (frost, fire, flood, high temperatures) can be a major determinant of species survival | Zimmermann et al. (2009) |
Lag effects and gene flow within species | Species are generally still responding to past changes in climate and not optimally suited to current conditions | Thuiller et al. (2008), Kuparinen et al. (2010), Kremer et al. (2012) |
Epigenetic effects | The growing conditions of the parents can affect the capacity of progeny to cope with drier or warmer conditions | Brautigam et al. (2013) |
Biotic effects | Insect pests and diseases can be strong determinants of species distribution | |
Phenology and life history traits | Age to sexual maturity, fecundity, seed dispersal, or chilling or dormancy requirements | Nitschke and Innes (2008b) |
Mutual benefits with plants or animals | Some species have strong interactions with other plants, animals or micro-organisms that may respond differentially to climate | |
Competition effects | SDMs generally assume open-grown conditions. Competition with other tree species can determine species distribution | Castagneri and Motta (2010) |