Table 1 Predicted changes of suitable habitat (species distribution) and population due to climate change in Germany under two future scenarios (IPCC A1b and A2 2021–2050)
From: Forest conversion can help to mitigate impacts of climate change on common forest birds
Bird species | Present condition | A1b 2021–2050 | A2 2021–2050 | Δ Present → A1b | Δ Present → A2 | AUC | Rel error | D 2 | EU | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Suitable habitat | (N) population | % Suitable habitat | (N) population | % Suitable habitat | (N) population | % Suitable habitat | % population | (N) population | % Suitable habitat | % population | (N) population | Distribution | Abundance | |||||
Blue tit | Parus caeruleus | 45.1 | 3,612,900 | 45.2 | 3,622,500 | 45.2 | 3,526,400 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 9,600 | 0.1 | −2.4 | −86,500 | 0.84 | 8.0 | 28.3 | 37.3 | ++ |
Coal tit | Parus ater | 30.1 | 1,539,700 | 19.6 | 1,087,000 | 16.5 | 898,800 | −10.4 | −29.4 | −452,700 | −13.6 | −41.6 | −640,900 | 0.95 | 13.2 | 60.5 | 37.7 | ++ |
Common blackbird | Turdus merula | 98.3 | 10 438 100 | 98.3 | 10,129,000 | 98.4 | 9,936,700 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −309,100 | 0.1 | −4.8 | −501,400 | 0.78 | 6.8 | 17.4 | 60.2 | ++ |
Common chaffinch | Fringilla coelebs | 39.8 | 6,107,000 | 39.8 | 5,106,100 | 39.9 | 4,858,900 | 0.0 | −16.4 | −1,000,900 | 0.1 | −20.4 | −1,248,100 | 0.84 | 6.1 | 27.2 | 34.4 | + |
Common chiffchaff | Phylloscopus collybita | 39.7 | 2,498,700 | 39.4 | 2,425,300 | 39.0 | 2,382,200 | −0.3 | −2.9 | −73,400 | −0.7 | −4.7 | −116,500 | 0.86 | 7.2 | 31.1 | 15.8 | ++ |
Common wood pigeon | Columba palumbus | 45.2 | 1,897,400 | 45.3 | 2,260,581 | 45.4 | 2,228,457 | 0.1 | 19.1 | 363,132 | 0.2 | 17.4 | 331,009 | 0.83 | 9.1 | 23.9 | 44.5 | ++ |
Dunnock | Prunella modularis | 37.1 | 1,231,300 | 38.3 | 1,202,200 | 39.0 | 1,191,600 | 1.2 | −2.4 | −29,100 | 1.9 | −3.2 | −39,700 | 0.91 | 10.0 | 15.5 | 27.2 | ++ |
Eurasian blackcap | Sylvia atricapilla | 45.5 | 3,832,600 | 45.5 | 3,635,700 | 45.5 | 3,869,700 | 0.0 | −5.1 | −196,900 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 37,100 | 0.83 | 6.3 | 25.2 | 25.5 | ++ |
Eurasian jay | Garrulus glandarius | 43.6 | 580,500 | 36.1 | 868,400 | 33.8 | 931,900 | −7.6 | 49.6 | 287,900 | −9.8 | 60.5 | 351,400 | 0.91 | 24.9 | 28.9 | 43.1 | + |
Eurasian nuthatch | Sitta europaea | 36.1 | 1,369,200 | 32.3 | 1,766,600 | 30.7 | 1,847,500 | −3.8 | 29.0 | 397,400 | −5.4 | 34.9 | 478,300 | 0.84 | 12.0 | 54.9 | 28.2 | + |
Eurasian treecreeper | Certhia familiaris | 12.6 | 311,900 | 2.3 | 61,500 | 0.9 | 26,300 | −10.3 | −80.3 | −250,400 | −11.7 | −91.6 | −285,600 | 0.93 | 18.4 | 51.1 | 16.3 | + |
European crested tit | Parus cristatus | 19.8 | 754,400 | 19.8 | 680,100 | 19.9 | 634,400 | 0.0 | −9.8 | −74,300 | 0.0 | −15.9 | −120,000 | 0.93 | 17.2 | 56.7 | 15.4 | + |
European robin | Erithacus rubecula | 38.8 | 3,203,600 | 37.9 | 3,164,000 | 37.7 | 3,157,500 | −0.9 | −1.2 | −39,600 | −1.2 | −1.4 | −46,100 | 0.81 | 8.5 | 46.2 | 43.0 | + |
Firecrest | Regulus ignicapillus | 26.0 | 1,783,600 | 24.9 | 1,761,300 | 24.8 | 1,776,000 | −1.2 | −1.3 | −22,300 | −1.3 | −0.4 | −7,600 | 0.90 | 21.1 | 48.2 | 36.2 | ++ |
Garden warbler | Sylvia borin | 58.4 | 1,694,700 | 45.4 | 1,423,100 | 47.2 | 1,351,300 | −13.0 | −16.0 | −271,600 | −11.2 | −20.3 | −343,400 | 0.86 | 10.3 | 40.0 | 9.3 | + |
Great spotted woodpecker | Picoides major | 38.5 | 1,210,400 | 39.2 | 1,478,200 | 39.3 | 1,545,100 | 0.7 | 22.1 | 267,800 | 0.9 | 27.7 | 334,700 | 0.90 | 10.4 | 40.8 | 29.4 | + |
Great tit | Parus major | 45.5 | 6,919,800 | 45.5 | 7,392,100 | 45.5 | 7,342,100 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 472,300 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 422,300 | 0.94 | 5.6 | 30.4 | 42.2 | ++ |
Hawfinch | Coccothraustes coccothraustes | 14.3 | 381,800 | 6.7 | 346,200 | 5.4 | 313,300 | −7.6 | −9.3 | −35,600 | −8.9 | −17.9 | −68,500 | 0.86 | 27.0 | 31.3 | 35.5 | + |
Marsh tit | Parus palustris | 15.7 | 484,500 | 13.7 | 461,400 | 12.7 | 441,000 | −2.0 | −4.8 | −23,100 | −3.0 | −9.0 | −43,500 | 0.83 | 10.3 | 25.3 | 7.0 | ++ |
Short-toed treecreeper | Certhia brachydactyla | 10.7 | 569,400 | 7.5 | 331,100 | 6.5 | 294,300 | −3.1 | −41.9 | −238,300 | −4.2 | −48.3 | −275,100 | 0.79 | 14.2 | 32.7 | 37.6 | ++ |
Song thrush | Turdus philomelos | 39.5 | 1,193,600 | 38.4 | 1,120,600 | 38.2 | 1,092,600 | −1.1 | −6.1 | −73,000 | −1.4 | −8.5 | −101,000 | 0.83 | 7.6 | 40.5 | 23.0 | + |
Spotted flycatcher | Muscicapa striata | 6.7 | 212,000 | 2.4 | 76,600 | 4.2 | 132,400 | −4.3 | −63.9 | −135,400 | −2.4 | −37.5 | −79,600 | 0.89 | 20.0 | 30.0 | 11.5 |  |
Tree pipit | Anthus trivialis | 6.7 | 156,900 | 5.0 | 127,300 | 3.6 | 89,100 | −1.6 | −18.9 | −29,600 | −3.1 | −43.2 | −67,800 | 0.84 | 16.8 | 28.4 | 20.0 |  |
Willow warbler | Phylloscopus trochilus | 27.8 | 849,200 | 13.3 | 495,000 | 12.3 | 428,100 | −14.5 | −41.7 | −354,200 | −15.5 | −49.6 | −421,100 | 0.96 | 11.7 | 25.2 | 33.6 |  |
Winter wren | Troglodytes troglodytes | 39.6 | 2,658,900 | 38.9 | 1,781,900 | 38.7 | 1,631,500 | −0.7 | −33.0 | −877,000 | −0.9 | −38.6 | −1,027,400 | 0.90 | 8.2 | 42.5 | 32.5 | + |