Table 3 Comparison of forest management case studies looking for robust solutions under climate change uncertainty
From: Adopting robust decision-making to forest management under climate change
McDaniels et al. (2012) | Ogden and Innes (2007) | Seidl and Lexer (2013) | Seidl et al. (2011) | McCarthy and Lindenmayer (2007) | Crowe and Parker (2008) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Decision context | Climate adaptive strategy | Climate adaptive strategy | Climate adaptive strategy | Climate adaptive strategy | Species choice | Seed source choice for regeneration |
Uncertainties considered | Climate change | Climate change | Climate change; social demands | Climate change | Climate change impact on wildfire; impact of species choice on water yield; discount rate | Climate change |
Uncertainty metrics “X” | Temperature; precipitation | Temperature; precipitation | Temperature; precipitation; preferences | Temperature; precipitation | Fire intervals; increase in water yield | Temperature; precipitation |
Performance metrics “M” | Net economic value; non-timber values; community fire risk; ecosystem resilience | Biological diversity; productive capacity; forest health; soil and water conservation; carbon storage; socio-economic benefits | Sensitivity metrics: productivity; timber stock; carbon stock; biodiversity; disturbancesAdaptive capacity metrics: fundamental niche; silvicultural flexibility; cost intensity | Net present value of plantation establishment (including effects on water yield) | Adaptive growth variation between 2 geographic locations | |
Performance measurement “R” | Expert judgment (Likert scales) | Expert judgment (Likert scales) | Forest ecosystem model | Forest ecosystem model | Stochastic timber yield simulation model | Species range impact model |
Alternative generation | Strategy table (4 alternatives selected) | Predefined (84) | Predefined: current strategy; adaptation strategy | Current strategy (predefined); deduced adaptation strategies (workshops) | Predefined (2 choices) | Markowitz’s portfolio theory |
Decision levers “L” | Harvest measures; species composition; other silvicultural measures; fire management | Different individual adaptation measures | Species composition; rotation period; other silvicultural measures | Species composition; rotation period; other silvicultural measures | Regeneration with an exotic versus a native species | Seed sources |
Sampling states of the world | 3 scenarios: low/high/no change | 3 scenarios: low/high/no change | 3 scenarios: A1B/A2/B1 of the IPCC SRES | 3 scenarios: A1B/A2/B1 of the IPCC SRES | Best estimate with interval-based uncertainty bounds | 5 predefined scenarios |
Robustness measure | Variability in performance (overall and of single metrics) of an alternative across states | Satisficing: minimum performance requirement fulfilled for each scenario | Variability in performance of an alternative across scenarios | Variability in performance of current strategy across scenarios | Satisficing: interval-bounded uncertainty horizon (Info-Gap) | Expected variance and covariance over scenarios |