Table 1 Main characteristics of the European projection studies
From: Climate change impact on future wildfire danger and activity in southern Europe: a review
Reference | Spatial extent, location | Time periods1 | Climate simulations | Â | Â | Climate-fire model | Projected fire metrics | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | Â | Â | Scenario | Models | Spatial resolution | Temporal resolution | Â | |
1 Moriondo et al. 2006 | Continental, southern Europe | 1961–1990, 2071–2100 | A2, B2 | One RCM (HadRM3) driven by one GCM (HadCM3) (PRUDENCE project) | 0.44°×0.44° (~ 50 km) | Daily | FWI | Mean seasonal FWI, number of days above FWI threshold, fire season length |
2 Bedia et al. 2014a | Continental, southern Europe | 1971–2000, 2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100 | A1B | 6 RCM-GCM couplings driven by 2 GCMs (ENSEMBLES project) | 25 km | Daily | FWI | Mean seasonal and 90th percentile FWI, number of days above FWI threshold, fire season length, SSR |
3 Amatulli et al. 2013 | Continental, EU-Med countries | 1961–1990, 2071–2100 | A2, B2 | One RCM (HIRHAM) driven by one GCM (ECHAM) (PRUDENCE project) | 50 km | Daily | Multivariate regression-type models for monthly burnt area by country based on monthly FWI subcomponents | Annual burnt area by country, SSR |
4 Turco et al. 2018 | Continental, EU-Med countries | 1971–2000, + 1.5, + 2, + 3 °C | RCP4.5, RCP8.5 | 9 simulations from 4 RCM and 5 GCM combinations (EUROCORDEX). | NUTS3 level (~ 50 km) | Daily | Regression-type models for summer burnt area by administrative regions (NUTS3) based on a drought index (SPEI, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) | Changes in summer burnt areas for + 1 °C, + 2 °C and + 3 °C warming scenarios |
5 Dury et al. 2011 | Continental, Europe, including Scandinavia, Finland, Russia and Turkey | 1981–2000, 2081–2100 | A2 | One GCM (Arpege-Climate) | 0.5°×0.5° (~55 km) | Daily2 | CARAIB DVM with a fire module inspired by the fire algorithm developed by Arora and Boer 2005 | Annual burnt area |
6 Migliavacca et al. 2013a | Continental, Europe, including Scandinavia, Finland, Russia and Turkey | 1960–1990, 2010–2040, 2040–2070, 2070–2100 | A1B | 5 RCM-GCM couplings (ENSEMBLES project) | 0.25°×0.25° (~ 25 km) | Daily | CLM DVM with a fire module inspired by the fire algorithm developed by Arora and Boer 2005 | Annual carbon fire emissions, annual burnt area, maps of fire occurrence probability and burnt area fraction |
7 Wu et al. 2015 | Continental, Europe, including Scandinavia, Finland, Russia and Turkey | 1981–2000, 2081–2100 | RCP2.6, RCP8.5 | 4 ESM (CMIP5 experiment) | ESM outputs interpolated to 0.5°×0.5° (~ 55 km) | Daily2 | Integrated fire-vegetation models, LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE and LPJmL-SPITFIRE | Annual burnt area |
8 Khabarov et al. 2016 | Continental, Europe, including Scandinavia, Finland, Russia and Turkey | 2000–2008, 2026–2035, 2046–2055, 2086–2095 | A2 | 3 GCM (CMIP3 experiment) | Not specified5 | Monthly3 | Same framework as Migliavacca et al. (2013a), with a standalone fire model calibrated for Europe | Annual burnt area |
9 Chatry et al. 20104 | National, France | 1961–2008, 2031–2050, 2051–2070, 2081–2100 | A1B, A2, B1 | One GCM (Arpege-Climate) | 50 km (statistically downscaled to 8 km) | Daily | FWI | Annual FWI, number of days above FWI thresholds |
10 Karali et al. 2014 | National, Greece | 1961–1990, 2021–2050 2071–2100 | A1B | One RCM (RACMO2) driven by one GCM (ECHAM5) (ENSEMBLES project) | 25 km | Daily | FWI | Number of days above FWI thresholds |
11 Lozano et al. 2017 | National, Italy, and Corsica (France) | 1981–2010, 2011–2040, 2041–2070 | A1B | One RCM (CMCC-CLM) | 14 km | 6 h | FFMC and DC (FWI system), Randig (~FLAMMAP fire simulator) | Frequency distributions of FFMC and DC, mean values and maps of burn probability, flame length and fire size |
12 Carvalho et al. 2010 | National, Portugal | 1980–1990 2071–2100 | 2 x CO2 (~ A2) | One RCM (HIRHAM) | 12 and 25 km | Daily | FWI components, multivariate regression-type models for monthly fire number and burnt area based on monthly maximum temperature and FFMC | Monthly means of FFMC and FWI Annual fire number and burnt areas |
13 Carvalho et al. 2011 | National, Portugal | 1981–2000, 2041–2060 | Radiative forcing: + 3 W/m2 in 2050 (~RCP8.5) | One RCM (MM5) driven by one GCM (MUGCM) | 10 km | Daily | FWI | Frequency distribution of FWI and its subcomponents |
14 Vázquez de la Cueva et al. 2012 | National, Spain | 1961–1990, 2071–2100 | A2, B2 | One RCM (PROMES) driven by one GCM (PRUDENCE project) | 50 km | Daily | A simple regression model for monthly fire number and burnt area by ecozone based on one monthly temperature variable | Annual fire number and burnt area by ecozone |
15 Vázquez et al. 2015 | National, Spain | 1974–2005, 2071–2100 | A2, B2 | – | – | – | Ratio values of fire activity by scenario and by ecozone between future and present time slices, from Vázquez de la Cueva et al. 2012 | Fire frequency and rotation period by woodland types |
16 Sousa et al. 2015 | National, Portugal and Spain | 1981–2001, 2001–2025, 2026–2050, 2051–2075 | A1B | 4 RCM-GCM couplings (ENSEMBLES project) | 25 km | Daily | Multivariate regression-type models for monthly burnt area by pyro-region based on monthly statistics of weather variables | Seasonal (summer, March) burnt area |
17 Arca et al. 2012 | National, Italy (FWI) Regional, Sardinia | 1961–1990, 2071–2100 | A1B | One RCM (EBU-POM) | 25 km | 6 h | FWI, FlamMap fire simulator | Annual FWI, maps of mean burn probability |
18 Faggian 2018 | National, Italy | 1971–2000, 2021–2050 | A1B, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 | One RCM from Med-CORDEX (for fire danger analysis) | 12, 25 km |  | FWI | Number of fire danger days, SSR |
19 Pellizzaro et al. 2010 | Regional, Sardinia, Italy | 1961–1990, 2071–2100 | A1B | One RCM (likely EBU-POM, see Arca et al. 2012) | 20 km | 6 h | FFMC (FWI system) | Frequency distribution of FFMC |
20 Kalabokidis et al. 2015 | Regional, Greece (3000 km2) | 1961–1990, 2071–2100 | A1B | One RCM (RACMO2) driven by one GCM (ECHAM5) (ENSEMBLES project) | 25 km | Daily | FWI, Randig (~FLAMMAP fire simulator) | Monthly FWI statistics, number of days with extreme fire danger. Maps of conditional burn probability and flame lengths, fire size distribution |
21 Mitsopoulos et al. 2015 | Local, Greece(160 km2) | 1991–2000 2045–2055 2065–2075 2091–2100 | A1B | One RCM (RACMO2) driven by one GCM (ECHAM5) (ENSEMBLES project) | 25 km | Daily | FLAMMAP fire simulator, specific empirical fuel moisture model | Fire behaviour variables, including fire size |
22 Loepfe et al. 2012 | Three distinct areas of 700–800 km2 in Catalonia, Spain | 1968–2005, 2001–2100 | A2, B1 | One GCM (HadCM3) | Not relevant | Daily | Yearly maxima of FFMC, DC and FWI, FIRE LADY fire simulator | Annual fire number and burnt area |
23 Turco et al. 2014 | Regional, Catalonia, Spain | Continuous, 1970–2050 | A1B | 11 RCM-GCM couplings (ENSEMBLES project) | 25 km | Monthly | Multivariate regression-type models for summer fire number and burnt area based on coincident (summer) and antecedent monthly weather variables | Summer fire number and burnt area |