Table 2 Changes in fire metric (in % or days per decade)
From: Climate change impact on future wildfire danger and activity in southern Europe: a review
| Â | Â | Scenario A1B | Scenario A2 or RCP8.5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Metric | Area | Mid-term | End of century | Mid-term | End of century |
Mean seasonal FWI (%) | Southern Europe Balkans | 3.32 2.62 | 4.02 3.42 | Â | 2.11 2.31 |
France (< 48° lat) |  |  |  | 2.61 | |
France Greece | 5.92, 5.29 1.82 | 6.92, 6.19 1.92, 2.520 | 4.99 | 7.29 2.21 | |
Italy | 3.22 | 4.32, 1.817 | Â | 2.31 | |
Portugal Spain | 2.72 3.12 | 3.12 3.72 | 9.113 | 1.51 2.11 | |
Seasonal severity rating SSR (%) | Southern Europe Balkans | 5.02 4.02 | 6.52 5.52 | Â | 3.73 |
France – MED |  |  | 4.73 | ||
France | 102 | 122 | Â | ||
Greece Italy Portugal Spain | 3.02 5.12 4.22 4.82 | 3.32 7.42 5.02 6.32 | 3.93 2.63 4.93 4.33 | ||
Length of fire season (days) | Southern Europe Balkans | 3.42 2.32 | 3.42 2.52 | Â | 3.51 3.41 |
France (< 48° lat) |  |  | 3.51 | ||
France | 5.22 | 5.42 | Â | ||
Greece Italy Portugal Spain | 3.12 2.62 2.62 3.12 | 2.42 2.52 2.32 3.02 | 4.31 3.21 3.31 3.81 | ||
Fire number (%) | Portugal | Â | Â | Â | 2812 |
Spain | Â | 3214 | |||
Regional (NE Spain) | 2023 | Â | |||
Local (NE Spain) |  | 20–2322 | |||
Burnt area (%) | Europe Southern Europe | 3.76 1.46 | 4.56 1.96 | 108 14(9.7)4, 9.08 | 6.47, 107, 24(1.9)8 163, 25(13)4, 3.77, −7.67, 20(−2.5)8 |
France-MED | Â | Â | Â | 143 | |
Greece | Â | Â | Â | 183 | |
Italy | Â | Â | Â | 4.83 | |
Portugal | Â | Â | Â | 193,4812 | |
Spain | Â | Â | Â | 933, 5114 | |
Iberian P. | 23(16)16, 2.76 | 3.66 | Â | Â | |
Regional (NE Spain) | −1523 |  |  |  | |
Local (NE Spain) |  |  |  | 9–9622 | |
Fire size (%) | Italy (+Corsica) | 0.711 | Â | Â | Â |
Regional (Greece) | Â | 6.920 | Â | Â | |
Local (Greece) | 0.521 | 2.321 | Â | Â | |