Table. 7 Percent change of basal area and density for control and future climate sequences in 3 plots for total trees and by each species over 93 timesteps from 2006 to 2099, averaged over 10 runs. MIROC “hot-dry”, CNRM “warm-wet”, CCSM “moderate-warm”. Plots are listed from lowest to highest elevation. ABCO, A. concolor; ABMA, A. magnifica; CADE, C. decurrens; PIJE, P. jeffreyi; PIPO, P. ponderosa; QUKE, Q. kellogii
From: Modeling the forest dynamics of the Sierra Nevada under climate change using SORTIE-ND
Basal area % change | Density % change | |||||||
Control | MIROC | CNRM | CCSM | Control | MIROC | CNRM | CCSM | |
Totals | ||||||||
BBBPIPO | 13.4 | 13.24 | 20.25 | 16.27 | −20.66 | −22.63 | −19.17 | −20.57 |
SP | 52.10 | 42.03 | 49.16 | 45.28 | 109.48 | 74.79 | 85.89 | 80.62 |
SJP | 24.06 | 19.71 | 19.96 | 16.49 | 394 | 438.42 | 454.68 | 443.74 |
SJ | 43.82 | 46.16 | 44.99 | 46.12 | 54.61 | 36.93 | 41.79 | 38.62 |
UPLOG | 36.46 | 36.61 | 54.03 | 36.61 | 111.51 | 105.75 | 114.62 | 104.95 |
SJM | 56.69 | 58.71 | 57.84 | 62.65 | 527.63 | 301.33 | 312.52 | 299.35 |
POFLABMA | 47.88 | 50.95 | 43.63 | 48.82 | 81.88 | 71.8 | 99.95 | 97.85 |
ABCO | ||||||||
BBBPIPO | 40.02 | 40.75 | 57.36 | 44.74 | 40.75 | 33.47 | 49.05 | 42.45 |
SP | 55.08 | 24.41 | 35.75 | 30.45 | 149.87 | 108.52 | 131.14 | 114.03 |
SJP | 16.69 | −2.14 | −0.15 | −4.34 | 178.05 | 124.96 | 126.9 | 129.12 |
SJ | 19.79 | 2.96 | 2.22 | 3.7 | 49.59 | 23.35 | 28.93 | 23.48 |
UPLOG | 41.52 | 43.86 | 66 | 56.14 | 77.51 | 68.33 | 86.69 | 69.59 |
SJM | 5.32 | −13.42 | −22.02 | −16.9 | 82.67 | 52.16 | 42.84 | 51.64 |
ABMA | ||||||||
SJP | 135.87 | 156.3 | 182.18 | 177.47 | 327.5 | 265 | 311.25 | 327.5 |
SJ | 73.29 | 99.75 | 97.74 | 98.42 | 70.22 | 70.06 | 71.28 | 75.7 |
SJM | 49.89 | 79.84 | 81.06 | 86.82 | 53.76 | 52.92 | 55.02 | 57.71 |
POFLABMA | 46.52 | 51.4 | 42.48 | 47.12 | 49.96 | 51.26 | 49.35 | 50.57 |
CADE | ||||||||
BBBPIPO | 27.17 | 21.99 | 34.82 | 24.58 | −39.94 | −39.22 | −37.08 | −39.48 |
SP | 18.95 | 11.28 | 10.51 | −25.01 | −40 | −42 | −42 | −46 |
SJP | 38.52 | 16.87 | 8.27 | 18.67 | −23.75 | −20.94 | −24.38 | −20.63 |
UPLOG | 35.87 | 74.52 | 81.21 | 64.87 | −47.14 | −40 | −37.86 | −36.43 |
PILA | ||||||||
BBBPIPO | 63.17 | 28.15 | 42.13 | 45.59 | 17.69 | 8 | 15.08 | 14.62 |
SP | 90.44 | 84.42 | 88.04 | 77.09 | 340 | 279.41 | 321.67 | 294.26 |
SJP | −29.8 | −11.36 | −27.61 | −21.76 | 785.71 | 567.14 | 620 | 625.71 |
SJ | 213.11 | 176.25 | 241.47 | 257 | 55.71 | 45.71 | 95.71 | 94.29 |
UPLOG | -4.61 | −28.93 | −25.58 | −10.39 | 349.29 | 275 | 266.79 | 323.57 |
PIPO | ||||||||
BBBPIPO | −28.41 | −44.01 | −30.71 | −20.42 | 177.74 | 129.03 | 171.61 | 164.52 |
SP | 52.92 | −7.55 | −12.33 | −1.76 | 107.15 | 32.36 | 36.02 | 45.77 |
SJP | 5.75 | 20.04 | −23.31 | −14.85 | 231.43 | 180 | 197.14 | 168.57 |
PIJE | ||||||||
SJP | 77.98 | 172.06 | 189.44 | 171.475 | 2430.67 | 3366.33 | 3494.67 | 3362 |
SJ | −15.72 | 161.7 | 162.25 | 91.75 | −57.5 | 132.5 | 135 | 57.5 |
UPLOG | 241.81 | 340.49 | 223.03 | 228.47 | 349.29 | 275 | 266.79 | 323.57 |
QUKE | ||||||||
BBBPIPO | −2.33 | 23.16 | 7.65 | 8.53 | −35.94 | −34.53 | −39.19 | −35.76 |
SP | 12.4 | 152.75 | 172.17 | 153.37 | −35.6 | −18.4 | −19.5 | −16.1 |
UPLOG | −20.29 | 396.06 | 316.11 | 320.85 | −85 | −35 | −40 | -40 |