Table 7 Importance of climate change effects on the predicted probabilities of mortality of the 12 species. The base mortality rate corresponds to an average predicted value where all non-climate change-related variables were set to their average value on all the trees of the considered species. The 6 columns located in the right part of the table indicate how predicted probabilities of tree mortality in %.5 years−1 vary depending on the intensity of climate change. One value per plot where the species is present is calculated.
Amplitude of climate change effects on the predicted probabilities of tree mortality (%.5 years−1) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Base mortality rate (%.5 years−1) | 1st centile | 1st quartile | Median | 3rd quartile | 99th centile | Average | ||
Lowland species | Robinia pseudoacacia | 0.13% | 1.11% | 1.63% | 1.84% | 2.07% | 3.75% | 1.93% |
Quercus robur | 0.04% | 0.35% | 0.58% | 0.71% | 0.84% | 1.24% | 0.72% | |
Pinus pinaster | 0.07% | 0.18% | 0,28% | 0.39% | 0.57% | 0.97% | 0.44% | |
Fagus sylvatica | 0.37% | 0.17% | 0.26% | 0.31% | 0.36% | 0.67% | 0.32% | |
Betula pendula | 0.92% | 0.16% | 0.22% | 0.26% | 0.30% | 0.60% | 0.28% | |
Carpinus betulus | 0.17% | / | / | / | / | / | / | |
Quercus petraea | 0.14% | / | / | / | / | / | / | |
Mountain species | Picea abies | 0.23% | 0.79% | 1.03% | 1.17% | 1.35% | 1.92% | 1.20% |
Pseudotsuga menziesii | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.23% | 0.29% | 0.39% | 0.69% | 0.32% | |
Larix decidua | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.19% | 0.26% | 0.39% | 0.75% | 0.31% | |
Pinus sylvestris | 1.42% | 0.93% | 1.32% | 1.50% | 1.73% | 2.82% | 1.56% | |
Abies alba | 0.50% | / | / | / | / | / | / | |