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Table 4 Modelled current potential climate envelope area of tree species and its change according to the two emission scenarios

From: Climate envelope analyses suggests significant rearrangements in the distribution ranges of Central European tree species

Species name

Area* (106 km2)

Area gain and loss (%)

1961–1990 Base period

2011–2040 RCP 4.5

2011–2040 RCP 8.5

2041–2070 RCP 4.5

2041–2070 RCP 8.5

2071–2100 RCP 4.5

2071–2100 RCP 8.5

Fagus sylvatica, L.

0.90

− 27

− 27

− 48

− 66

− 58

− 82

Picea abies, H. Karst

2.11

− 19

− 24

− 35

− 43

− 40

− 75

Pinus nigra, J.F. Arnold

0.50

− 19

− 25

− 26

− 20

− 18

− 39

Pinus sylvestris, L.

3.33

− 26

− 33

− 41

− 55

− 53

− 71

Quercus cerris. L.

0.56

17

14

21

− 11

43

− 6

Quercus frainetto, Ten.

0.11

13

4

− 5

− 46

− 29

− 81

Quercus petraea, Liebl.

0.88

− 6

− 13

− 21

− 33

− 31

− 48

Quercus pubescens, Willd

0.70

31

33

35

49

47

59

Quercus robur, L.

1.99

− 1

− 8

− 14

− 20

− 16

− 30

Undefined**

1.91

45

61

91

114

105

169

  1. Area gains are in bold
  2. Tables with country-by-country estimates can be found in Illés and Móricz 2022–Species_area_by_country.xls)
  3. *Area derived from the referenced occurrence data and climatic databases. It is not intended to represent the total area that is currently occupied by the species
  4. **Areas with climatic characteristics that are outside the predictable range